Premier League Model Divergence

How models work

Topside Ratings (Margins & Dominance)

Focuses on scoring margins and margin of victory. It rewards teams that blow out their opponents and severely punishes heavy defeats. An average team sits at a baseline rating of 10.

Elo Ratings (Results & Difficulty)

Focuses purely on official match results and opponent difficulty. It rewards teams for securing wins against tough opponents, even if the matches were incredibly close or ugly. An average team sits at a baseline rating of 1500.

Model Divergence

Highlights the difference between winning close games vs. padding stats. Elo-favored teams are winning tight matchups against good teams. Topside-favored teams have massive scoring margins but may be losing tight matches to top-tier opponents.