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Championship Model Divergence
2026 season · Topside vs Elo rank comparison
Championship
How to read this table
💡 Results vs. Margins: Elo measures raw wins/losses and opponent difficulty, while Topside heavily weights goal differential. Teams at the top are winning tight, gritty matches against tough opponents. Teams at the bottom are blowing out weaker teams but dropping points in close games.
| Rank | Team | Gap | Model Gap & Bias | Topside Rank | Elo Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Stoke
Stoke City FC
|
Elo +8 | Elo Favored (+8) | 10 | 2 |
| 2 |
Bristol City
Bristol City FC
|
Elo +3 | Elo Favored (+3) | 20 | 17 |
| 3 |
Charlton
Charlton Athletic FC
|
Elo +3 | Elo Favored (+3) | 22 | 19 |
| 4 |
Blackburn
Blackburn Rovers FC
|
Elo +2 | Elo Favored (+2) | 13 | 11 |
| 5 |
Sheffield Utd
Sheffield United FC
|
Elo +2 | Elo Favored (+2) | 14 | 12 |
| 6 |
Bolton
Bolton Wanderers FC
|
Elo +1 | Elo Favored (+1) | 19 | 18 |
| 7 |
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough FC
|
Elo +1 | Elo Favored (+1) | 4 | 3 |
| 8 |
Portsmouth
Portsmouth FC
|
Elo +1 | Elo Favored (+1) | 11 | 10 |
| 9 |
QPR
Queens Park Rangers FC
|
Elo +1 | Elo Favored (+1) | 8 | 7 |
| 10 |
Swansea
Swansea City AFC
|
Elo +1 | Elo Favored (+1) | 9 | 8 |
| 11 |
West Brom
West Bromwich Albion FC
|
Elo +1 | Elo Favored (+1) | 5 | 4 |
| 12 |
Wolverhampton
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC
|
Elo +1 | Elo Favored (+1) | 6 | 5 |
| 13 |
Birmingham
Birmingham City FC
|
Consensus | Model Consensus (0) | 1 | 1 |
| 14 |
Derby County
Derby County FC
|
Consensus | Model Consensus (0) | 23 | 23 |
| 15 |
Lincoln City
Lincoln City FC
|
Consensus | Model Consensus (0) | 21 | 21 |
| 16 |
Millwall
Millwall FC
|
Consensus | Model Consensus (0) | 16 | 16 |
| 17 |
Preston NE
Preston North End FC
|
Consensus | Model Consensus (0) | 24 | 24 |
| 18 |
Wrexham
Wrexham AFC
|
Consensus | Model Consensus (0) | 15 | 15 |
| 19 |
Cardiff
Cardiff City FC
|
Topside +1 | Topside Favored (+1) | 12 | 13 |
| 20 |
Watford
Watford FC
|
Topside +2 | Topside Favored (+2) | 18 | 20 |
| 21 |
Southampton
Southampton FC
|
Topside +4 | Topside Favored (+4) | 2 | 6 |
| 22 |
Burnley
Burnley FC
|
Topside +5 | Topside Favored (+5) | 17 | 22 |
| 23 |
West Ham
West Ham United FC
|
Topside +6 | Topside Favored (+6) | 3 | 9 |
| 24 |
Norwich
Norwich City FC
|
Topside +7 | Topside Favored (+7) | 7 | 14 |
Tap a row for Topside / Elo ranks & details